Businesses that combine closed-loop, arms dealer and monopoly characteristics represent something fundamental that is shifting in the global economy. They represent automation that is pervasive, smart, and is a layer that sits across the entire economy. Data processing and prediction build these business models. They permeate all services, including supply chains, logistics, mobility, and consumer offerings. Pervasive and innovative, they represent opportunities for increasing investment returns. Incumbents enhance their position, generate increasing value, create challenging barriers, enable more innovation to solidify their position and will sustain their value because of this new competitive dynamic. Innovation is always a threat, and value can be created from a new entrant, but the bar is increasingly higher for both the level of disruption and quality of innovation to an existing or even new market.
To be sure, new opportunities will be created as new technology develops. An example is the wireless data and smart phone market. Essentially, 4G mobile technology enabled the substantial value creation at Facebook, Netflix, Uber and AirBnB. These companies could build their services on top of this technological platform and create not only a new competitive business, but a new market where they could be the dominant player. As 5G develops and we see unimagined high-speed for data, entertainment, communication, and other services, we will have new businesses and opportunities created on this platform – only so much can be imagined today, others which are yet to come. But there will be real-time connection with customers enabling new and innovative products and services, artificial intelligence permeating software and communication enhancing quality and innovation further, enhanced gaming (perhaps even to a professional level), and virtual reality and augmented reality perhaps finally becoming the market opportunity that has been imagined for many years. This list is far from exhaustive, and without doubt, there will be valuable companies created whose business models we can’t quite imagine today.