Innovation, Competitiveness, and a Fractured World

Advanced Technology, Article, Book Chapter, China, geopolitics, globalization, Public Policy, Transformative Businesses, , , , , , , , ,

The US’s competitive advantage was developing the world’s best educational system, initiating innovative research and development, welcoming the world’s best students to thrive in an unrestricted environment, and accessing unique forms of capital for entrepreneurial ideas. The unique environment that combined academia and entrepreneurship, as seen at places like Bell Labs and Fairchild Semiconductor, was the spark that ignited Silicon Valley, the Life Sciences Corridor, the Innovation District, and the Research Triangle, among others, creating an unprecedented entrepreneurial environment and economic engine. This drove economic growth, disruptive innovation, and greater prosperity. This created a virtuous cycle that enhanced national wealth and economic opportunity. We are undermining all these advantages. The next 20 years will be defined by choices made today. Talent, energy, and technological innovation build the foundation for prosperity. Undermine them, and you guarantee decline.

Taiwan, Semiconductors, and U.S. Strategy

Article, Book Chapter, China, Class Material, globalization, Lectures, Trade, , , , , ,

The sustainability of advanced technologies, unique manufacturing capabilities, global access, and robust supply chains is currently dependent on ill-defined, reckless, and volatile political and economic strategies. Ignoring the reality of the situation and hoping things will eventually work out isn’t a good plan. For decades, the world has relied on Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) to produce the most advanced chips, powering everything from smartphones to artificial intelligence. This dependence has created an unprecedented vulnerability: a single geopolitical flashpoint controls the lifeblood of the global digital economy. The challenges of advanced semiconductor technologies and manufacturing are among the most pressing and significant issues of this generation. The U.S. must acknowledge that a world dominated by a single supplier is unsustainable. It must invest not only in fabs but also in intellectual capital, allied coordination, and long-term technological leaps. There is no guarantee of success. The rivalry with China will intensify, and Taiwan will remain a flashpoint. But inaction is the greater risk. Hope may provide comfort, but only strategy, investment, and execution will ensure resilience. Hope is not a plan.

The Total Perspective Vortex

Advanced Technology, Article, Artificial Intelligence, Book Chapter, Lectures, Prediction, Science, Transformative Businesses, , , , ,

We are on the precipice of technological innovations that could potentially disrupt humanity, but they will not happen overnight, nor will they be out of our control. We have the time and hopefully the perspective to make wise choices.It’s happened before. A little over 100 years ago, and within a few decades, the automobile, the airplane, the telephone, and the electrical grid remade the physical and social fabric of life. For the first time, distances collapsed. Cities and homes glowed with electric light. Factories ran with continuous power. Communication traveled instantly across continents. People traveled unimaginable distances in hours rather than weeks or months.What had been science fiction for centuries became everyday reality, and people felt both awe and dislocation. We can learn from the past, as the scale of disruption from that era was likely far greater than what we are experiencing today.The Total Perspective Vortex is a form of torture because the truth of one’s insignificance is unbearable. Perhaps that truth is found in the disruptive innovations we admire and fear, the humanity that may be lost in this sea of technological innovation, and our anxiety about our own irrelevance. We have a deeper responsibility. It’s happened before; perhaps humankind can make better use of the new era of disruptive innovation and our expanding powers more wisely.In other words, get a perspective.

China, the US, and the Long Game

Article, Book Chapter, China, geopolitics, globalization, Lectures, , , , , , , ,

The United States and China play global economic and political chess games. There are numerous moves and defensive and offensive strategies, not only for trade but also for energy and natural resources (rare earths, among the most recent sources of discord), geopolitics (Russia, Ukraine, Iran, and the Middle East generally), technology (Taiwan and AI), and global economic supremacy. It’s a long list, but China and the US drive the outcomes. Let’s be clear, Apple designed the iPhone, but it was China’s manufacturing workforce that made it a global phenomenon. China’s millions of engineers and factory workers accumulate practical hands-on knowledge from experience that cannot be easily transferred. This sustainable advantage creates new industries, including electric vehicles, drones, and alternative energy, with world-leading expertise. In the meantime, America’s engineering expertise has been hollowed out. It is naïve to imagine wrestling China back to the past. The project, now, is to contest its moral vision of the future. Connected, collaborative engagement is the only practical way. China has come a long way, and its trajectory cannot be ignored or dismissed. The U.S. and China will be much better off from this more enlightened, realistic perspective.

New Energy Innovation

Advanced Technology, Article, Book Chapter, Energy, , , , , ,

A new generation of clean, reliable, and flexible energy technologies, including geothermal and advanced nuclear energy, is emerging. The story is no longer about clean and renewable energy. Solar and wind have their place, but capital investment and policy incentives are now focused on reliable, low-cost, controllable, domestic energy. For the first time in years, the policy, market, and demand signals are aligned in favor of a portfolio of solutions that are testing the edges of technology and are no longer narrow niches.

The AI Supercycle

Advanced Technology, Article, Artificial Intelligence, Book Chapter, Transformative Businesses, , ,

Artificial intelligence is driving technological disruption and economic transformation. It is a unique opportunity and, like PCs, the Internet, mobile, and cloud computing before it, AI is driving a new supercycle. Unlike previous technological revolutions, the current transformation is exponential, creating new industries and markets and impacting existing economic structures, costs, distribution, and employment. While productivity and economic growth are expected to surge, the most significant opportunity arises for capital owners, and therefore, investors. AI will be the most significant economic catalyst of the 21st century, fundamentally altering how we work, innovate, and create value.

Time for Hard Things

Advanced Technology, Article, Artificial Intelligence, Book Chapter, Hard Tech, Transformative Businesses, , , , , , ,

With better models, more effective benchmarks, and a framework for constant improvement, now is the time to focus AI on complex, innovative, and transformational tasks. Essentially, AI and models should focus on hard tech. Hard tech refers to businesses rooted in advanced engineering and scientific innovation, often involving the development of physical products or systems that address complex challenges. Beyond drones, robots, and AI-driven hardware, the following are prominent examples of hard tech opportunities across industries. AI-driven hard tech is creating new business models and industries, such as personalized medicine, autonomous logistics, smart infrastructure, and agentic AI platforms that autonomously manage complex operations, reshaping the competitive landscape and unlocking new avenues for value creation. As a result, businesses and professionals who embrace interdisciplinary skills and continuous learning will thrive in the hard tech ecosystem.

Is AI Any Good?

Advanced Technology, Article, Artificial Intelligence, Book Chapter, , , , , , ,

So far, we’ve attempted to answer that question through benchmarks. These give models a fixed set of questions to answer and grade them on how many they get right. But just like exams, these benchmarks don’t always reflect deeper abilities. Lately, it seems as if a new AI model is released every week, and each time a company introduces one, it comes with fresh scores showing it surpassing the capabilities of its predecessors. AI research is a hypercompetitive infinite game. An infinite game is open-ended—the goal is to keep playing. However, in AI, a dominant player often produces a significant result, triggering a wave of follow-up papers that chase the same narrow topic. This race-to-publish culture puts enormous pressure on researchers, rewarding speed over depth and short-term wins over long-term insight. If academia chooses to play a finite game, it will lose.

This “finite vs. infinite game” framework also applies to benchmarks. So, do we have a truly comprehensive scoreboard for evaluating the true quality of a model? Not really. Many dimensions—social, emotional, interdisciplinary—still evade assessment. But the wave of new benchmarks hints at a shift. As the field evolves, a bit of skepticism is probably healthy.

A New Perspective

Advanced Technology, Article, Book Chapter, Prediction, Public Policy, Transformative Businesses, , , ,

The convergence of volatile geopolitics fragmented and unpredictable markets, disruptive technologies, and unique opportunities.

Understanding geopolitical issues, developing innovative and insightful investment strategies, and navigating political and economic volatility are now essential to achieving investment success.

Navigating Uncertainty

Article, Book Chapter, China, Class Material, globalization, , , , , ,

A turbulent geopolitical and economic environment is here to stay. Allocating capital in today’s economic and geopolitical landscape requires a sharp focus on macro trends, a disciplined approach to risk, and an ability to anticipate shifts in policy and global power dynamics. The investment landscape has never been more complex, with heightened tensions between the U.S. and China, uncertainty surrounding Taiwan, and Europe’s economic fragility. The new reality is that trade realignments, subsidized industrial policies, and emerging trading blocs characterized by protectionism and localization are rising. Now What?Geopolitical risk is no longer an afterthought. The US-China rivalry, Taiwan’s strategic importance, Europe’s economic fragility, and shifting trade policies will shape the next decade of global markets. Savvy investors will anticipate these changes and allocate capital to industries and regions positioned for sustained growth. The key to success is flexibility, resilience, and the ability to recognize macro trends before they materialize fully. The future is uncertain but full of opportunities.