Looking Forward

Most current innovations have yet to reach their potential, and new innovations are essential to address the most critical issues we confront, whether that is climate change, food scarcity, water shortages, or more effective distribution of innovation itself. Advanced technologies can be many things, but several areas, including artificial intelligence, life sciences, and software innovations provide the most potent platform for new opportunities, disruptive innovation, and value creation. Software will disrupt the most important industries in the world, especially finance, life sciences, and communications. These will be the fundamental innovations that will drive value creation over the course of the next year, and from now on.

A new industrial revolution

Businesses that combine closed-loop, arms dealer and monopoly characteristics represent something fundamental that is shifting in the global economy. They represent automation that is pervasive, smart, and is a layer that sits across the entire economy. Data processing and prediction build these business models. They permeate all services, including supply chains, logistics, mobility, and consumer offerings. Pervasive and innovative, they represent opportunities for increasing investment returns. Incumbents enhance their position, generate increasing value, create challenging barriers, enable more innovation to solidify their position and will sustain their value because of this new competitive dynamic. Innovation is always a threat, and value can be created from a new entrant, but the bar is increasingly higher for both the level of disruption and quality of innovation to an existing or even new market.

To be sure, new opportunities will be created as new technology develops. An example is the wireless data and smart phone market. Essentially, 4G mobile technology enabled the substantial value creation at Facebook, Netflix, Uber and AirBnB. These companies could build their services on top of this technological platform and create not only a new competitive business, but a new market where they could be the dominant player. As 5G develops and we see unimagined high-speed for data, entertainment, communication, and other services, we will have new businesses and opportunities created on this platform – only so much can be imagined today, others which are yet to come. But there will be real-time connection with customers enabling new and innovative products and services, artificial intelligence permeating software and communication enhancing quality and innovation further, enhanced gaming (perhaps even to a professional level), and virtual reality and augmented reality perhaps finally becoming the market opportunity that has been imagined for many years. This list is far from exhaustive, and without doubt, there will be valuable companies created whose business models we can’t quite imagine today.

Asymmetry and Convexity

If asymmetry and convexity exist, this investment will have a much greater risk-adjusted return, and those positive returns will increase at an increasing rate. Obviously, these are the most attractive components to the most successful investments. How do we find them? A dynamic that has emerged globally combining industry disruption, technical innovation, customer loyalty, and a worldwide market is the “closed loop” business. This is where a company provides a product or service that is innovative, useful, and generates significant demand. Customer feedback for that product or service provides a “loop” that enables the company to understand its customer better and the attractiveness or negative aspects of the company’s product or service. The customer feedback now enables the company to provide a better product or service and be a more formidable competitor. There is now a loop connecting the company and the customer. If a company is essentially able to close this loop so that the customer values the company’s product or service so highly that the customer will not look for competing products, this will enable the company to grow at an increasing rate. Essentially, this closed loop is a value-generating competitive weapon that improves the product offered, retains customers gets better feedback to make an even better product, retains and attracts even more customers, etc. It enables more effective capital investment, more efficient operations, and improves decision-making from better customer data and responsiveness. This creates a virtuous cycle that spirals the business upward creating a sustainable competitive advantage generating increasing returns. As a result, a company that creates a closed loop with its customers will create the most attractive returns. Another critical component to identify an attractive investment is when a company provides a product or service essential to all competitors within an attractive market segment. In other words, the “arms dealer” to that industry. Arms dealers typically represent a singularly attractive investment opportunity. While the term speaks to a specific legal standard, essentially, monopolies are constructed within industry sectors constantly. A valuable product or service, while perhaps initially part of a fragmented industry, ultimately consolidates into a few, and sometimes a single source supplier. As you can probably see, the arms dealers and monopolies are essentially closed-loop businesses. Often unmentioned, yet the most important component to an investment’s story is the team managing the business, especially the CEO. We have discussed businesses that build slight competitive advantages and the network effect built monopolistic positions or understood how to play a role as the provider of an essential product to all competitors in a growing industry. But without doubt the most important component of all of this is the people managing the business. Extraordinary companies are built by extraordinary people.