Nicholas Mitsakos

Investor, Entrepreneur, Writer, and Lecturer



Current research and analysis on topics ranging from innovation, disruption, and opportunity, as well as hype, irrationality, and absurdity.

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Commentary about recent technological, market, economic, and geopolitical events

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Presentations about developments in technology, life sciences, digital assets, and other transformational businesses, as well as market, economic, and geopolitical developments

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Define the Problem or You Won’t Solve Anything

Most people have no idea what they are doing. The best intentions combined with intellectual prowess and plentiful capital rarely achieve anything worthwhile. They fail because they don’t know what they’re trying to solve. Nothing can be solved until the problem is defined accurately. Otherwise it is a waste of time and resources (which describes most public policy). All too often decision makers waste time, resources, and make matters worse because they simply do not understand the actual problem they’re trying to solve.

Portfolio Strategy

The government is providing a backstop for all government-backed securities. The Fed is also going to be extremely active in the markets, buying not only fixed-income securities but also stock index funds. They are working very hard to keep the market aloft and preventing it from cratering (they still may not be successful). This is an election year and this administration will do everything it can to make sure things look as good as possible through November.
I understand there is riskiness, but I expect economic activity and fed support to continue to increase. Even if we have an increase in coronavirus cases, people will remain optimistic – justifiably or not.
There will be extreme volatility. Economic activity will waiver, increase suddenly, pull back, and the pattern will continue for some time to come.
Market volatility is our friend because we have a stable source of cash flow that protects our capital base. On top of that, the speculative strategy will profit from volatility while the equity investment strategy will play for the long term – it is a multi-year long-term perspective.

Although there are a handful of investments where confidence in the five-year curve is justified, and now is a great time to make these long-term investments, it is still very unpredictable.
The short- and long-term state of the economy, how this massive amount of debt gets repaid, how we reopen businesses, etc. is unknown, volatile, and any attempt to predict seems fruitless. But, understanding how to adjust for risk, accept, and ultimately take advantage of volatility, will be powerful. Along with a long-term perspective, this will be the most effective investment strategy. The Fed is printing more money. We’re going to see a lot of capital injected into the global economy. But the presence of money is not the important factor. It’s the velocity of money – how people are spending it and is that money chasing after other goods. That will drive inflation. We didn’t see it in the past even though we had a massive capital injection. Deflation and recession are much bigger concerns. Inflation is not on the horizon. The Fed’s enhanced bond-buying, which includes high-yield bonds and other fixed-income securities is unprecedented and has boosted the value of debt portfolios. However, these portfolios (mostly just above or just below investment grade) still yield attractive disproportionate risk-adjusted returns.

AI Does Not Live Up to the Hype

The history of AI shows that attempts to build human understanding into computers rarely work. Instead, most of the field’s progress has come from the combination of ever-increasing computer power and exponential growth in available data. Essentially, the ability to bring ever more brute computational force to bear on a problem-focused on larger data sets

Technology and Turmoil

Productivity, expansion, and entrepreneurship were enabled through the adoption of new technology. Undeniably, the net economic benefit was substantial. But lives were disrupted, jobs were lost, and what would be seen with a historical perspective as an obvious beneficial choice, was anything but obvious to those so immediately and negatively impacted.

Technological advancements produce net benefits for society. But for every advancement, there is a cost. Leadership and subsequent public policy must address this shortfall. As in the past, the solution has been training and education leading to economic inclusion and prosperous lives.

History has taught us the net benefit of technological advancement, the turmoil it brings, and the solution required.

pandemic time

Instead of “internet time” we now have “pandemic time.” The need for advanced systems to keep society functioning, manufacturing moving, and give consumers some sense of safety is immediate. Driving innovations – whether those innovations are in health care, technology or other areas of production and manufacturing – is essential to not only offset the

An unprecedented (every 10 years or so) event

We Didn’t See This One Coming – Sort Of The coronavirus has created a disruption to our lives, relationships, business, and financial markets. But, as we look beyond the immediate crisis, market trends and investment opportunities can be analyzed and calibrated to take advantage of unprecedented opportunities. Since major disruptions and market discontinuities occur on

AI, Medicine and…Quantum Cryptography?

Special thanks to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology for research and notes Artificial Intelligence, Correlation, and Failure Artificial Intelligence identifies correlations far more frequently than causal relationships. Correlations show how certain phenomena go together, which can be quite useful in many circumstances – but not in medicine. Only causal links tell why the presence of

The Biological Revolution

The coronavirus will accelerate the third great innovation revolution of modern times. Beginning about 100 years ago, three fundamental components were discovered: the atom, the bit, and the gene. Understanding the atom led to atomic bombs and nuclear power, semiconductors and transistors, spaceships and GPS, lasers and radar. Bits led to the development of the