A New Perspective on AI

AI is not a data problem; it is a cognitive architecture problem. Data and computing power will become insurmountable hurdles for transformer-based models. A new generation of AI models requires fundamental breakthroughs. Large data models can’t learn, transfer knowledge or understanding, understand the relevance, or use analogous learning to transfer that relevance and predict. Current AI models require massive and increasing data and learn from reinforcement. This cannot scale and is massively inefficient. Real learning based on cognitive architecture, focused dynamic data, and referential data sets is a better solution. This is closer to real human learning, more effective and efficient, and offers a significantly better solution. Understanding the natural learning process — referential and analogous data, categorization, transferring and building upon that data, and creating knowledge applicable to new situations — learning builds upon itself and is exponentially effective. That is the real AI solution.

Globalization Under Threat 

The paranoia is building. From the CHIPS Act to proposals for absurdly high tariffs (60% on goods from China isn’t going to help anyone) to banning TikTok, the world is on the verge of reversing decades of progress and exchanging real progress for delusionary gains.
Efforts to localize production and economic development with vast government subsidies are being proposed or enacted in the United States, the EU, China, India, and any other economic center that can think of it.
Hiding behind walls has never worked and makes life worse for everyone.

Transformation, Disruption, Opportunity, and Hype

Global technological transformation and disruptive technologies create extraordinary opportunities – and magnified risks. Headline-grabbing hyperbole dominates each news cycle, and some forecasts and bewildering futuristic projections can mostly be dismissed. However, meaningful substance and catalytic disruptive change are permeating all industries.
A context to understand these developments – a broader, methodical, and disciplined way to think about disruption and transformation- shows that extraordinary opportunities on a highly competitive global scale are emerging.
Artificial intelligence and AI-generated tools, digital assets, blockchain-based businesses, gene editing, and DNA sequencing profoundly impact the world’s most important industries. New technological innovations and platforms enable unprecedented disruption to all business and economic models.

China, Prosperity, and Free Markets

Chairman Xi faces more significant problems than just a declining stock market. Future prosperity, innovation, and China’s global position in advanced technologies are at stake. Bureaucratic regulation and central government money are not the answer, and an uncomfortable truth for communist bureaucrats is that a free market, access to venture capital and private equity, and vibrant public markets are essential for China’s success. A volatile market is still best at attributing value and allocating capital over time. China’s entrepreneurs have brilliance, incomparable fortitude, and a strong work ethic, but without capital and liquidity for that capital, the ship will run aground.

Permanent capital is essential for the growth of an economy, innovation, and prosperity. Liquidity is essential for that capital.

The AI Horizon

Artificial intelligence is poised to significantly impact various fields and activities, transforming how we approach creativity, professional activities, science, and many more domains. Disruption will accelerate the development of new innovative businesses and strategies in finance, medicine, data management, systems engineering, materials science, art, and other industries. AI’s impact will be profound and multifaceted, driving innovation and efficiency and posing challenges regarding ethics, job displacement, and new skills and regulations. As AI continues to evolve, its integration into these areas will likely shape the future of human society in significant ways.

A Golden Age of Miraculous Cures…Perhaps

The first gene-edited approved drug (treating sickle cell anemia) is the first commercial rewriting of human genomes. Is this a new “Golden Age” for medicine? There is great promise, and the potential to treat unmet medical needs, scale dramatic innovations to commercial applications, and transform life sciences is enormous. Since every medicine is an intersection of scientific, technical, and clinical understanding, many new treatments are suddenly arriving because of the convergence of dramatic advancements in science, technical knowledge, and clinical results. Modern medicine is witnessing a transformative era of groundbreaking innovations and technological advancements. We are witnessing a renaissance in drug treatment driven by innovations in immunotherapy, weight management, vaccine development, gene editing, and AI. These advances reshape medical treatments and fundamentally alter our approach to health and disease. As these technologies mature and their applications broaden, the future of medicine holds unprecedented potential for improving human health and longevity. A golden age – with a bit of hype.

An Optimist’s Vision of AI

The era of artificial intelligence is here, and it’s generating despair and fear over the loss of control and the worry that artificial intelligence is about to unleash killer robots and enslave humanity. Perhaps…or, something else. Artificial intelligence will improve lives and generate greater access to education, improve healthcare, and advance climate science. Among many other improvements, AI’s benefits greatly outweigh its costs. AI has its costs since everything comes with a price (there are always both sides to the ledger), but the extraordinary benefits that artificial intelligence can unleash are worth the effort. Don’t slow down, pause, or restrict research, development, and AI applications. Prometheus gave the world fire and while we can still cause great harm, it was among the single greatest advancements for humankind. Artificial intelligence can be the same thing for our modern-day recipients of fire from the gods. But, we can’t be naïve. We can still burn the earth down if we are not careful.

AI will not destroy the world – and is more likely to save it. I’s trajectory points towards a future where it not only enhances technological capabilities but also enriches human lives. Its evolving role will be characterized by a synergy between human and artificial intelligence, propelling societal progress and opening new frontiers of innovation and discovery is not just a technological advancement; it’s a catalyst for a new era of human endeavor.

Its impact is vast, touching every aspect of our lives and work. As AI continues to evolve, its role in shaping our society and driving innovation will only become more significant, opening new horizons for growth, creativity, and human potential.

The Hitchhikers Guide to Climate Change

Addressing climate change requires a mix of practical solutions, innovative thinking, and a change in our collective attitude. It’s like realizing that the Earth is not unlike a spacecraft, and we’re all astronauts. The only difference is we can’t step out for a breath of fresh air if we mess this up. As we embark on this journey, remember the words of the great intergalactic traveler, Ford Prefect: “Don’t Panic.” With a bit of effort, creativity, and a willingness to change, we can navigate through this. And perhaps, one day, we’ll look back and tell ourselves, “So long, and thanks for all the fish” – knowing that we did our part to keep the planet habitable for the dolphins, and ourselves.

Today, Tomorrow, and the Apocalypse

The future does not need us, and apparently, we don’t need it either.

The future isn’t what it used to be.

Humankind evolved to have a long-term view, either from religious teachings, the seasons, empires, and epoques, beyond the temporal spaces of our lifetimes. We went from living in an extended present to thinking about a long-term future.

Our horizons have gotten much shorter. When I wrote my latest book, “The Ten Year Horizon,” ten years seemed a sufficient and faraway temporal space to discuss a long arc of basic scientific research and discovery that could address our most urgent problems. However, it’s most appropriate to think a century ahead in order to understand the future we really want. It’s not just for us, it’s for generations to come.

Collectively, mankind has never had so many ways to destroy itself through self-made dangers including nuclear weapons, bioterrorism, climate change, antibiotic resistance, and many other self-manufactured threats. It is time for temporal maturity and ignore the tumultuous waves striking the boat today and keep our eye on the long-term horizon.

Short-term thinking has brought the potential for a catastrophic crisis even closer. Perhaps now it is time to grow up and think about the future. What do we want to be – because whatever that may be, we are certainly not working towards it now.

Conservation Won’t Work

In crisis there is opportunity. The infrastructure of modern society – utilities, telecom systems, energy systems, highways, and other components – is essential for global economic development, unavoidable, demanded by many, pose insurmountable obstacles, and is poised at the edge of transformational change. They Want What We Have Emerging economies need a range of basic