Innovation, Competitiveness, and a Fractured World

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The US’s competitive advantage was developing the world’s best educational system, initiating innovative research and development, welcoming the world’s best students to thrive in an unrestricted environment, and accessing unique forms of capital for entrepreneurial ideas. The unique environment that combined academia and entrepreneurship, as seen at places like Bell Labs and Fairchild Semiconductor, was the spark that ignited Silicon Valley, the Life Sciences Corridor, the Innovation District, and the Research Triangle, among others, creating an unprecedented entrepreneurial environment and economic engine. This drove economic growth, disruptive innovation, and greater prosperity. This created a virtuous cycle that enhanced national wealth and economic opportunity. We are undermining all these advantages. The next 20 years will be defined by choices made today. Talent, energy, and technological innovation build the foundation for prosperity. Undermine them, and you guarantee decline.

China, the US, and the Long Game

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The United States and China play global economic and political chess games. There are numerous moves and defensive and offensive strategies, not only for trade but also for energy and natural resources (rare earths, among the most recent sources of discord), geopolitics (Russia, Ukraine, Iran, and the Middle East generally), technology (Taiwan and AI), and global economic supremacy. It’s a long list, but China and the US drive the outcomes. Let’s be clear, Apple designed the iPhone, but it was China’s manufacturing workforce that made it a global phenomenon. China’s millions of engineers and factory workers accumulate practical hands-on knowledge from experience that cannot be easily transferred. This sustainable advantage creates new industries, including electric vehicles, drones, and alternative energy, with world-leading expertise. In the meantime, America’s engineering expertise has been hollowed out. It is naïve to imagine wrestling China back to the past. The project, now, is to contest its moral vision of the future. Connected, collaborative engagement is the only practical way. China has come a long way, and its trajectory cannot be ignored or dismissed. The U.S. and China will be much better off from this more enlightened, realistic perspective.

New Energy Innovation

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A new generation of clean, reliable, and flexible energy technologies, including geothermal and advanced nuclear energy, is emerging. The story is no longer about clean and renewable energy. Solar and wind have their place, but capital investment and policy incentives are now focused on reliable, low-cost, controllable, domestic energy. For the first time in years, the policy, market, and demand signals are aligned in favor of a portfolio of solutions that are testing the edges of technology and are no longer narrow niches.

The US, China, and Asia  

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The global investment landscape has reached a structural inflection point. Geopolitical realignments, industrial policy, and national security concerns are reshaping the era of frictionless globalization. At the center of this transformation is the intensifying strategic competition between the United States and China.
The US is acting belligerently toward China in trade negotiations, threatening exorbitant tariff rates and trying to build walls around China’s international trade activity. All this may be a high-volume attempt to bring China to the table to strike a better trade arrangement. While this tactic is unprecedented, we may only be in the third inning of a nine-inning game. The current geopolitical and economic transition is both a challenge and a multi-decade opportunity. Capital will increasingly flow to regions that demonstrate policy consistency, innovation capacity, and demographic vibrancy. Strategic sectors such as AI, defense, semiconductors, energy, digital infrastructure, and cybersecurity will drive private and public investment.
Embracing this new reality of regional diversification, thematic depth, and geopolitical foresight will position participants to thrive.
As multipolarity replaces global uniformity, success lies with active, strategic alignment with the forces shaping the next economic era.

AI is Not Magic

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Artificial intelligence is often imagined in extremes — utopian dreams of salvation or dystopian fears of extinction. More realistically, AI should be viewed as a normal technology. AI will be transformative, like electricity or the internet. Still, it will unfold over decades, shaped by human institutions, policies, and societal adoption patterns, not by sudden leaps into autonomous superintelligence. AI is not miraculous and unpredictable. It is transformative and will impact many lives for many decades. AI will not create extreme utopian or apocalyptic visions. It will be part of a continuum of human technological advances, powerful and transformative but ultimately shaped by human choices, institutions, and values.
Focusing on resilience, gradual adaptation, institutional innovation, and evidence-based governance can help society maximize AI’s benefits while managing its genuine risks. The future of AI will not be determined by the technology alone. We will determine it.

Navigating Uncertainty

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A turbulent geopolitical and economic environment is here to stay. Allocating capital in today’s economic and geopolitical landscape requires a sharp focus on macro trends, a disciplined approach to risk, and an ability to anticipate shifts in policy and global power dynamics. The investment landscape has never been more complex, with heightened tensions between the U.S. and China, uncertainty surrounding Taiwan, and Europe’s economic fragility. The new reality is that trade realignments, subsidized industrial policies, and emerging trading blocs characterized by protectionism and localization are rising. Now What?Geopolitical risk is no longer an afterthought. The US-China rivalry, Taiwan’s strategic importance, Europe’s economic fragility, and shifting trade policies will shape the next decade of global markets. Savvy investors will anticipate these changes and allocate capital to industries and regions positioned for sustained growth. The key to success is flexibility, resilience, and the ability to recognize macro trends before they materialize fully. The future is uncertain but full of opportunities.

China, the US, and the “Trap”

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The “Thucydides Trap” occurs when a rising nation-state—for the Greek historian Thucydides, it was Athens—must eventually have a violent confrontation with the existing dominant nation-state—Sparta in his time. It is a zero-sum game where there can be only one dominant nation-state as the eventual winner, and it is usually assumed that the rising nation-state will outdo the dominant nation-state resolved only by military conflict.The United States and China are today’s Sparta and Athens. For several decades, their geopolitical relationship has been fundamentally based on collaboration and healthy competition, raising the bar for both countries. Now, it is turning into discordant competition, trade restrictions, and embargoes. The combined benefits of global collaboration and competitiveness, not trade restraint, will only enhance the benefits for the United States and China. The government creates friction and potential conflict, which is the biggest reason we fall into the Thucydides Trap. If appropriate, oversight, sensible regulation, and enforceable trade agreements do not interfere with fair competition and collaboration. There is no “Trap” to avoid. The sooner China and the US realize this, the better off each country (and the world) will be.

China’s Emerging AI

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Significant VC activity and AI development opportunities are emerging in China. DeepSeek is the Vanguard of innovation from the artificial intelligence “moonshot” encouraged by the Chinese government. Not only will we see ongoing developments from Alibaba and Tencent, but there will also be a layer of elite AI companies at the forefront of China’s AI sector. US sanctions and restrictions have only increased innovation and groundbreaking AI development activity in China. Those sanctions will amount to nothing and encourage accelerated advancement.

The AI Wars

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The announcement of a $500 billion commitment to building AI infrastructure in the United States, is another major salvo in the AI wars. At this point, it’s hard to distinguish whether this is just hyperbole from hyperventilating technology executives or something with real substance.But, more importantly, it indicates an agenda to “win” in artificial intelligence. OpenAI, Softbank, and others are pushing the narrative to “beat China” and align themselves with the Trump administration. Fundamental is a belief that such a race exists, the US can gain advantage by dedicating computer resources, and it’s worth winning at all costs – whatever that means.Unfortunately, computer resources don’t define a sustainable advantage anymore. A decoupling of resources and cooperation between the United States and China have forced the Chinese to develop near-equivalent models while using only a fraction of resources. bigger data centers, substantial computing resources, and overwhelming numbers of GPU production won’t win this arms race. It’s A Zero-Sum Game That Amounts to Nothing.

Globalization Under Threat 

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The paranoia is building. From the CHIPS Act to proposals for absurdly high tariffs (60% on goods from China isn’t going to help anyone) to banning TikTok, the world is on the verge of reversing decades of progress and exchanging real progress for delusionary gains.
Efforts to localize production and economic development with vast government subsidies are being proposed or enacted in the United States, the EU, China, India, and any other economic center that can think of it.
Hiding behind walls has never worked and makes life worse for everyone.