Current research and analysis on topics ranging from innovation, disruption, and opportunity, as well as hype, irrationality, and absurdity.
Presentations about developments in technology, life sciences, digital assets, and other transformational businesses, as well as market, economic, and geopolitical developments
“Assume no knowledge” (Socrates) No successful company can create or sustain its competitive strength without constantly examining its First Principles. It means defining a problem effectively, understanding the actions needed, and then implementing those plans. This requires a unique combination of perspective, talent, drive, and organizational flexibility. It is rare, but when discovered, it is…
Luck and timing play an outsized role determining any outcome – and these are extraneous circumstances one cannot influence. As in sports, sometimes the ball bounces your way and sometimes it doesn’t.mportantly, winning should never be the goal because you can never do your best if you compromise who you are – your values and character – while achieving your goals. Whatever the outcome, it’s just the outcome. But the values and standards that make you who you are inviolate and supersede any near-term goal.
The current low interest rate environment increases the discounted present value of future cash flows and reduces the return demanded for every investment. In other words, when the Fed funds rate is zero, 6% bonds become disproportionately attractive. Buyers have now bid bond prices up until yields are now significantly less.What does it mean if the prices of stocks and listed credit instruments are at levels not driven primarily by fundamentals reasons (i.e. current earnings and the outlook for future growth), but in large part because of the Fed’s buying, it’s injection of liquidity, and the resultant low cost of capital and the market’s lower demanded returns on financial instruments?
We are rapidly approaching a zero-interest rate world. In the face of the dramatic negative impact of the pandemic, as well as existing and lingering economic fallout, central banks’ interest rate toolbox will be empty soon. The only remaining weapon will be fiscal policy. Among other things, fiscal policy and domestic financial markets will have an overwhelming influence on global currencies.
Most people have no idea what they are doing. The best intentions combined with intellectual prowess and plentiful capital rarely achieve anything worthwhile. They fail because they don’t know what they’re trying to solve. Nothing can be solved until the problem is defined accurately. Otherwise it is a waste of time and resources (which describes most public policy). All too often decision makers waste time, resources, and make matters worse because they simply do not understand the actual problem they’re trying to solve.
The government is providing a backstop for all government-backed securities. The Fed is also going to be extremely active in the markets, buying not only fixed-income securities but also stock index funds. They are working very hard to keep the market aloft and preventing it from cratering (they still may not be successful). This is an election year and this administration will do everything it can to make sure things look as good as possible through November.
I understand there is riskiness, but I expect economic activity and fed support to continue to increase. Even if we have an increase in coronavirus cases, people will remain optimistic – justifiably or not.
There will be extreme volatility. Economic activity will waiver, increase suddenly, pull back, and the pattern will continue for some time to come.
Market volatility is our friend because we have a stable source of cash flow that protects our capital base. On top of that, the speculative strategy will profit from volatility while the equity investment strategy will play for the long term – it is a multi-year long-term perspective.
Although there are a handful of investments where confidence in the five-year curve is justified, and now is a great time to make these long-term investments, it is still very unpredictable.
The short- and long-term state of the economy, how this massive amount of debt gets repaid, how we reopen businesses, etc. is unknown, volatile, and any attempt to predict seems fruitless. But, understanding how to adjust for risk, accept, and ultimately take advantage of volatility, will be powerful. Along with a long-term perspective, this will be the most effective investment strategy. The Fed is printing more money. We’re going to see a lot of capital injected into the global economy. But the presence of money is not the important factor. It’s the velocity of money – how people are spending it and is that money chasing after other goods. That will drive inflation. We didn’t see it in the past even though we had a massive capital injection. Deflation and recession are much bigger concerns. Inflation is not on the horizon. The Fed’s enhanced bond-buying, which includes high-yield bonds and other fixed-income securities is unprecedented and has boosted the value of debt portfolios. However, these portfolios (mostly just above or just below investment grade) still yield attractive disproportionate risk-adjusted returns.
The history of AI shows that attempts to build human understanding into computers rarely work. Instead, most of the field’s progress has come from the combination of ever-increasing computer power and exponential growth in available data. Essentially, the ability to bring ever more brute computational force to bear on a problem-focused on larger data sets…
Productivity, expansion, and entrepreneurship were enabled through the adoption of new technology. Undeniably, the net economic benefit was substantial. But lives were disrupted, jobs were lost, and what would be seen with a historical perspective as an obvious beneficial choice, was anything but obvious to those so immediately and negatively impacted.
Technological advancements produce net benefits for society. But for every advancement, there is a cost. Leadership and subsequent public policy must address this shortfall. As in the past, the solution has been training and education leading to economic inclusion and prosperous lives.
History has taught us the net benefit of technological advancement, the turmoil it brings, and the solution required.
Medical Intelligence is a new discipline, converging human and artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence will not replace human intelligence, especially in medicine. Diagnosis and treatment will remain a human endeavor. But AI will be an indispensable tool helping human intelligence effectively deliver better quality healthcare.
Instead of “internet time” we now have “pandemic time.” The need for advanced systems to keep society functioning, manufacturing moving, and give consumers some sense of safety is immediate. Driving innovations – whether those innovations are in health care, technology or other areas of production and manufacturing – is essential to not only offset the…
