An Optimist’s Vision of AI

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The era of artificial intelligence is here, and it’s generating despair and fear over the loss of control and the worry that artificial intelligence is about to unleash killer robots and enslave humanity. Perhaps…or, something else. Artificial intelligence will improve lives and generate greater access to education, improve healthcare, and advance climate science. Among many other improvements, AI’s benefits greatly outweigh its costs. AI has its costs since everything comes with a price (there are always both sides to the ledger), but the extraordinary benefits that artificial intelligence can unleash are worth the effort. Don’t slow down, pause, or restrict research, development, and AI applications. Prometheus gave the world fire and while we can still cause great harm, it was among the single greatest advancements for humankind. Artificial intelligence can be the same thing for our modern-day recipients of fire from the gods. But, we can’t be naïve. We can still burn the earth down if we are not careful.

AI will not destroy the world – and is more likely to save it. I’s trajectory points towards a future where it not only enhances technological capabilities but also enriches human lives. Its evolving role will be characterized by a synergy between human and artificial intelligence, propelling societal progress and opening new frontiers of innovation and discovery is not just a technological advancement; it’s a catalyst for a new era of human endeavor.

Its impact is vast, touching every aspect of our lives and work. As AI continues to evolve, its role in shaping our society and driving innovation will only become more significant, opening new horizons for growth, creativity, and human potential.

Mostly Harmless – Uncertainty, Algorithms, and Decision-Making

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The book attempts to bridge the gap between algorithmic processes and practical decision-making in uncertain circumstances. It moves beyond mathematical solutions to acknowledge the complexity of real-world decisions. The author, Nicholas Mitsakos, argues that decision-making is essentially a form of statistical analysis that involves models or algorithms, and being thorough in this understanding confers a significant advantage. is a comprehensive text discussing decision-making under uncertainty and the algorithms that can enhance the decision-making process. It covers a wide range of topics, including applications in various fields such as air traffic control, drug discovery, autonomous driving, and more. The introduction sets the stage by discussing the importance of understanding and managing uncertainty in decision-making. It defines algorithms in the context of systematic thinking and approaches to problem-solving, emphasizing the significance of defining problems clearly to find obvious solutions.

Cryptocurrency and Digital Assets: Terror and Opportunity

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Cryptocurrencies soar in value, plunge, hit new highs, are written off, rebound, and hit new highs again, and the cycle repeats. We should be terrified. Over the last five years, cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ether have outperformed the overall market. However, can the general trend of outperformance last, or will these digital assets drop over 90% like some of its other crypto brethren? Is there a sustainable performance that creates the foundation for either a new currency or a valuable asset class? Probably not. Forces that drive these eye-watering returns seem to be the same as those that drove the social media-driven insanity behind meme stocks such as GameStop. We are seeing social media mobs controlling demand to a limited supply, creating price spikes that look attractive to any speculative investor. Unfortunately, demand can dry up quickly and the price subsequently falls through the floor. Financial markets ruthlessly sort nonsense from substance. Volatility and existential threats have been brutal and extreme for digital assets and the reckoning for crypto has been predicted for some time. However, digital assets are not on their way to history’s dustbin. Reality is more nuanced, and I try to provide a more detailed analysis since a broad brush hardly seems appropriate. The weakest and craziest portions of the crypto world have been exposed as nothing more than silliness. But some valuable components remain resilient and offer tremendous opportunity. I will explore these in detail. There is more cause for optimism than pessimism among the best and the brightest. We will explore these opportunities while harshly dismissing the hype and silliness – avoid the terror of a worthless market.

Conservation Won’t Work

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In crisis there is opportunity. The infrastructure of modern society – utilities, telecom systems, energy systems, highways, and other components – is essential for global economic development, unavoidable, demanded by many, pose insurmountable obstacles, and is poised at the edge of transformational change. They Want What We Have Emerging economies need a range of basic…

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Put Down the Pitchforks

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Stunning capabilities are emerging from large language models like GPT 4 that, until very recently, were thought to be only theoretical. We could never have the data sets or the processing power to generate real and usable results. Well, all that has changed – rather suddenly.

But is it time for the torches and pitchforks? What are the serious risks that accompany this technology?

There will be good and bad, like every new era. Will it be the Middle Ages all over again and we’ll experience The Plague before the Renaissance, or will it be more balanced and reasonable? There are good, bad, and many things in between whenever humanity advances.

Let it happen. Put down the pitchforks.

Discovery, Innovation, and Crisis

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Our most intractable problems cannot be solved with behavior modification, conservation, or our existing technology, regardless of its advanced or widespread applications.

Only new knowledge creating innovative solutions can address our most intractable problems. This can only be achieved through basic scientific discoveries and then combining these discoveries with enterprise-based innovation, commercial discipline, and competition. Innovation, creativity, and competitive dynamics create the most effective innovations, the best solutions, and the most sustainable companies. Developing the best public policy as well as the best structure to enable innovative and creative solutions, as well as the economic incentive to scale these opportunities and make them economically sustainable.

Central planning, bureaucratic industrial policy, government-led economic management, and dictatorial focus have always failed, and always will.

Proud Certainty

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In his preamble to “The Theory of Relativity,” Einstein implored his reader to, “set aside your proud certainty” because he was about to present something quite revolutionary, iconoclastic, and, as he discovered for many years after publication, challenging to be broadly accepted. Of course, his insights would be vindicated, and would soon be considered one of the leading minds of the 20th century, and perhaps one of the great minds in scientific history. Einstein knew things that everybody else was ignorant of and was ignorant of things that everybody else knew. That was probably the key to his great thinking – he assumed no knowledge and didn’t confuse himself with the trivial or unimportant. Always explore, race to keep up, clear the field, and let other vibrant minds pass. It is the spark of human creation, analysis, and understanding that gives us a glimpse of nature’s fundamental beauty. We only touch a small fraction, and our hardest work and most diligent thinking expose a little bit more – and that is one of humankind’s most worthwhile pursuits. Set aside proud certainty; be indifferent to your failings and the cacophony of critics. See, question, verify, and question again.

The Broken Road of Innovation

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Discovery, innovation, and practical application are never a straight line and, the best analogy is “the broken road.” Our greatest discoveries and advancements have confusing, uneven, and broken pathways that often lead somewhere astonishing – even though at the outset the initial steps could never envision this as a final destination. Artificial intelligence is the embodiment of this concept. A powerful tool that can lead anywhere given the imagination and unlimited creativity of its users. There may be nowhere more impactful, generating therapies for unmet medical needs in record time, than artificial intelligence’s ability to mimic evolution in minutes. The real outcomes are still unpredictable, but the potential is unfathomable. AI languages that produce pictures seem to be initially relegated toward a combination of Tik-Tok influencers, outraged artists, and those with limited imaginations and creative skills. But now, AI-generated pictures can use text to direct specific protein designs with properties of shape, size, and/or function that make it possible for these new proteins to perform specific tasks on demand. This breakthrough may lead to more efficient and effective drug development and, the discovery in minutes of what evolution would otherwise have taken millions of years to develop.

Looking Forward

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Most current innovations have yet to reach their potential, and new innovations are essential to address the most critical issues we confront, whether that is climate change, food scarcity, water shortages, or more effective distribution of innovation itself. Advanced technologies can be many things, but several areas, including artificial intelligence, life sciences, and software innovations provide the most potent platform for new opportunities, disruptive innovation, and value creation. Software will disrupt the most important industries in the world, especially finance, life sciences, and communications. These will be the fundamental innovations that will drive value creation over the course of the next year, and from now on.

The Ten Year Horizon: Volatile, Intense, and Mostly Harmless

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This book explores the next decade’s more frequent and intense economic, geopolitical, fiscal, and market volatility, technological innovation, disruption, and hype.

Long-term opportunity exists, and this book uses a 10-year horizon as a surrogate for a long-term perspective. Some of the world’s most important industries are being disrupted, especially finance via digital assets and Blockchain-based businesses, life sciences via gene editing, DNA sequencing, and CRISPR, and communications via advanced wireless data networks, software technologies including artificial intelligence, and new interactive platforms such as the Metaverse.