Physical Intelligence

Robotics and related technology are ready for deployment, but the industry hasn’t crossed the threshold into full-scale production. Computational breakthroughs in stunning demonstrations are attention-grabbing, but the realities of industry quickly take over. There is a gap between robotics and artificial intelligence (“physical intelligence”) as it transitions from potential to hardware delivery in a demanding industrial setting. Physical AI and its integration into robotics may become one of the largest markets in history. But it is an industrial problem whose solution is not on a software timeline. In other words, its commercial deployment requires much more systems integration and real-world constraints than a software slide deck contemplates.

The Failure of Simplicity

Markets destroy the comfortable assumption that tomorrow behaves like yesterday. They reward those who can identify when the system’s structure changes and punish those who try to fit new realities into old frameworks.

That is why the conventional idea of “what something is worth” has become less relevant than how systems evolve. Investors who cling to formulas intended for stable conditions will always be surprised by nonlinear disruption.

Nowhere is this more obvious than in AI and energy, where the variables are not just changing; the equations themselves are being rewritten.

AI and the Economics of Ambition

Artificial intelligence is no longer an engineering discipline. It is an economic one. The companies that win will be those that understand: Ambition requires capital. Capital requires compute. Compute requires global-scale infrastructure. Infrastructure requires a strategy measured in gigawatts and billions, not teams and timelines. This is not just the future of technology — it is the new architecture of global competition.

The AI Supercycle

Artificial intelligence is driving technological disruption and economic transformation. It is a unique opportunity and, like PCs, the Internet, mobile, and cloud computing before it, AI is driving a new supercycle. Unlike previous technological revolutions, the current transformation is exponential, creating new industries and markets and impacting existing economic structures, costs, distribution, and employment. While productivity and economic growth are expected to surge, the most significant opportunity arises for capital owners, and therefore, investors. AI will be the most significant economic catalyst of the 21st century, fundamentally altering how we work, innovate, and create value.

Is AI Any Good?

So far, we’ve attempted to answer that question through benchmarks. These give models a fixed set of questions to answer and grade them on how many they get right. But just like exams, these benchmarks don’t always reflect deeper abilities. Lately, it seems as if a new AI model is released every week, and each time a company introduces one, it comes with fresh scores showing it surpassing the capabilities of its predecessors. AI research is a hypercompetitive infinite game. An infinite game is open-ended—the goal is to keep playing. However, in AI, a dominant player often produces a significant result, triggering a wave of follow-up papers that chase the same narrow topic. This race-to-publish culture puts enormous pressure on researchers, rewarding speed over depth and short-term wins over long-term insight. If academia chooses to play a finite game, it will lose.

This “finite vs. infinite game” framework also applies to benchmarks. So, do we have a truly comprehensive scoreboard for evaluating the true quality of a model? Not really. Many dimensions—social, emotional, interdisciplinary—still evade assessment. But the wave of new benchmarks hints at a shift. As the field evolves, a bit of skepticism is probably healthy.

The AI Horizon

Artificial intelligence is poised to significantly impact various fields and activities, transforming how we approach creativity, professional activities, science, and many more domains. Disruption will accelerate the development of new innovative businesses and strategies in finance, medicine, data management, systems engineering, materials science, art, and other industries. AI’s impact will be profound and multifaceted, driving innovation and efficiency and posing challenges regarding ethics, job displacement, and new skills and regulations. As AI continues to evolve, its integration into these areas will likely shape the future of human society in significant ways.

Digital Assets

Digital Assets – Technology of Freedom?

Digital assets are disrupting finance – the world’s largest industry. All assets, intellectual property, and even currency can now be digitized, and anyone can access anything from anywhere. The finance industry is being this intermediated and globalized, economic development and policy will be forever changed.

Time

A Few Simple Conclusions on a Few Simple Topics

Transformation, Valuation, Employment, and Deflation

Disruption to some of the world’s most important industries, deflationary pressure caused by scaling lower-cost businesses, and sustained low interest rates challenge traditional valuation models. Technological platforms, from blockchain-based businesses to energy storage to DNA sequencing, enable unprecedented disruption to business and economic models.

Interest rates will remain low, equity values will remain high, innovation will drive deflationary pressure, and volatility will be intense and frequent. A new approach is required to understand dynamic global competition and sustainable value.