Put Down the Pitchforks

Stunning capabilities are emerging from large language models like GPT 4 that, until very recently, were thought to be only theoretical. We could never have the data sets or the processing power to generate real and usable results. Well, all that has changed – rather suddenly.

But is it time for the torches and pitchforks? What are the serious risks that accompany this technology?

There will be good and bad, like every new era. Will it be the Middle Ages all over again and we’ll experience The Plague before the Renaissance, or will it be more balanced and reasonable? There are good, bad, and many things in between whenever humanity advances.

Let it happen. Put down the pitchforks.

Globalization and Optimism

Isolationism, fragmentation, and pessimism always fail. Globalization has been everyone’s favorite punching bag for a while. It is hard to feel optimistic about its prospects. However, globalization has a better future. If you are a fan of globalization, cooperation, and comparative advantage, the last decade has been extremely challenging. Ten years ago was a time of optimism on a global scale. However, economic and geopolitical forces have combined to add friction and fragmentation to global exchange. The benefits are now even greater and with everyone’s self-interest and mutual benefit, this geopolitical stalemate will pass – more quickly than is commonly thought today. Cooperation, integration, and mutual benefit win in the end. It is time to be optimistic once again.

Discovery, Innovation, and Crisis

Our most intractable problems cannot be solved with behavior modification, conservation, or our existing technology, regardless of its advanced or widespread applications.

Only new knowledge creating innovative solutions can address our most intractable problems. This can only be achieved through basic scientific discoveries and then combining these discoveries with enterprise-based innovation, commercial discipline, and competition. Innovation, creativity, and competitive dynamics create the most effective innovations, the best solutions, and the most sustainable companies. Developing the best public policy as well as the best structure to enable innovative and creative solutions, as well as the economic incentive to scale these opportunities and make them economically sustainable.

Central planning, bureaucratic industrial policy, government-led economic management, and dictatorial focus have always failed, and always will.

Industrial Policy – Stupidity by Another Name

Zero-sum thinking has begun. Despite comparative advantage, mutual cooperation, and specialization proving indisputably more beneficial than any other approach to economic interaction, this ideal is under threat. Rules and norms for economic integration lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, created an order-of-magnitude increase in the average wealth of the Western population, and benefited countless hundreds of millions enabling a way of life otherwise unimaginable post-World War II. Now that system is under threat as developed countries subsidize alternative energy, attract manufacturing via expensive subsidies, and restrict the flow of goods and capital. Mutual benefit is out; national gain is now the highest priority. In other words, stupidity and zero-sum thinking have taken over. A handful of bureaucrats, regardless of how brilliant each may be, can never equal the mind of the market. Management and control usually spell disaster eventually. Managed focus on technological development for products and services the central government believes have greater substantial benefit to the overall society may not be calamitous, but the law of unintended consequences has not been repealed. It will be inefficient, substandard, and create potentially dangerous side effects. Innovation, creative freedom, and unstructured thought are essential components to the development of any technology of substance and disruptive benefit.

Proud Certainty

In his preamble to “The Theory of Relativity,” Einstein implored his reader to, “set aside your proud certainty” because he was about to present something quite revolutionary, iconoclastic, and, as he discovered for many years after publication, challenging to be broadly accepted. Of course, his insights would be vindicated, and would soon be considered one of the leading minds of the 20th century, and perhaps one of the great minds in scientific history. Einstein knew things that everybody else was ignorant of and was ignorant of things that everybody else knew. That was probably the key to his great thinking – he assumed no knowledge and didn’t confuse himself with the trivial or unimportant. Always explore, race to keep up, clear the field, and let other vibrant minds pass. It is the spark of human creation, analysis, and understanding that gives us a glimpse of nature’s fundamental beauty. We only touch a small fraction, and our hardest work and most diligent thinking expose a little bit more – and that is one of humankind’s most worthwhile pursuits. Set aside proud certainty; be indifferent to your failings and the cacophony of critics. See, question, verify, and question again.

The Broken Road of Innovation

Discovery, innovation, and practical application are never a straight line and, the best analogy is “the broken road.” Our greatest discoveries and advancements have confusing, uneven, and broken pathways that often lead somewhere astonishing – even though at the outset the initial steps could never envision this as a final destination. Artificial intelligence is the embodiment of this concept. A powerful tool that can lead anywhere given the imagination and unlimited creativity of its users. There may be nowhere more impactful, generating therapies for unmet medical needs in record time, than artificial intelligence’s ability to mimic evolution in minutes. The real outcomes are still unpredictable, but the potential is unfathomable. AI languages that produce pictures seem to be initially relegated toward a combination of Tik-Tok influencers, outraged artists, and those with limited imaginations and creative skills. But now, AI-generated pictures can use text to direct specific protein designs with properties of shape, size, and/or function that make it possible for these new proteins to perform specific tasks on demand. This breakthrough may lead to more efficient and effective drug development and, the discovery in minutes of what evolution would otherwise have taken millions of years to develop.

Podcast – The Point of the Point

Life’s dramatic and unexpected change keeps us vital and longing to see what will happen next. To experience, to travel, to be a loose-fitting component to a tightly fitted place. Anywhere one can be a loose component and absorb the unique experiences of societies and cultures where we will never fit. I am not finished. It is easy to give up sometimes, especially when one feels tired, and abandoned, and, like many, the best is behind me. What is the point of continuing? Like The Point, the point is to go on. One is never finished. The realm of the Gods will come fast enough.

Better Investment Strategy

A Better Investment Strategy – Data, Discipline, and Rigor

Let the data tell the story. Remove human bias. Intuitive investment ideas may seem compelling, but more often, these ideas are time-consuming, inefficient, and inferior.

Diverse thinking, innovative approaches, and a willingness to be wrong and start over typically bring superior results.

Trust the model. Data, discipline, and rigor win more often.

Digital Assets

Recent Lecture – Digital Assets: Innovation, Opportunity, and Nonsense

Recently, I gave a lecture at a graduate program focused on innovation, technological disruption, and the impact on global industries and investment opportunities. My lecture focused on digital assets and attempted to draw distinctions between disruptive and substantial opportunities and hype, nonsense, and unsustainable business models. This is a quiz given to the students that reflects the main points raised in this lecture. For fun, I am including it here because it makes a series of fundamental points that I think are especially important, and the true-false construct conveys those points with clarity.

Arcadia Capital

Podcast Channel

The show analyzes emerging economic and social developments, identifying the most critical issues impacting investment success. It looks at globally disruptive changes and strategies to profit from these new market forces. Innovation, advanced technologies, geopolitics, and new interrelated factors are essential components of future investment success. Investment success combines predicting the future, the confidence to make bold choices, and the fortitude to stay with those choices. Today’s volatile and uncertain world requires new knowledge and perspective and assembling relevant facts from many diverse sources to make better decisions and achieve superior returns. Some of the world’s most important industries are being profoundly impacted by new technological innovations and platforms, such as artificial intelligence, digital assets, blockchain-based businesses, gene editing, and DNA sequencing, enabling unprecedented disruption to business and economic models. Stable predictability is increasingly anachronistic. Every company or industry will either be a disrupter or disrupted. The leading growth companies of today stand an excellent chance to be memories tomorrow.