AGI Is Not Coming Soon

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This podcast discusses my article on the current state of artificial intelligence, focusing on the limitations of large language models and the unrealistic expectations surrounding the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI). I argue that AI systems are not on a trajectory to match or exceed human intelligence because LLMs lack common sense and rely on regurgitating information rather than understanding. Despite the hype surrounding AGI, it is decades away, and the current focus on LLMs is misguided. Instead, I advocate for a different approach to AI that incorporates real-world interactions and visual data.

Burning Billions

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Many experts are exaggerating artificial intelligence’s power and peril. Most public commentary, ranging from politicians to prominent technologists, says AI – more precisely, AGI – is close to surpassing human intelligence. The significant risk is that artificial intelligence will supplant human beings. This speculation even comes from Geoffrey Hinton, a Nobel prize-winning AI pioneer. AI models are useful, but, as Yann LeCun, Meta’s AI head, says, they are far from rivaling a house cat’s intelligence, let alone humans. The talk that AI will become so powerful that it poses an existential threat to human beings is nonsense. AI is a powerful tool and is becoming enormously important in all aspects of the economy. But AGI, malicious or otherwise, will not happen anytime soon.

Apple versus Visa

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Apple can disrupt global finance. Visa and MasterCard are now vulnerable. Previously, it was believed that the capital required for infrastructure, systems, and processing was an insurmountable obstacle to any new competitor. But things have changed. Innovation and disruption in the credit card business pose a threat to established players like Visa and MasterCard. Apple can leverage its ecosystem, user experience focus, brand trust, strategic partnerships, and innovative use of data to succeed in the credit card business. Over time, as it scales and innovates, it could challenge Visa and MasterCard’s market dominance.

Globalization Under Threat 

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The paranoia is building. From the CHIPS Act to proposals for absurdly high tariffs (60% on goods from China isn’t going to help anyone) to banning TikTok, the world is on the verge of reversing decades of progress and exchanging real progress for delusionary gains.
Efforts to localize production and economic development with vast government subsidies are being proposed or enacted in the United States, the EU, China, India, and any other economic center that can think of it.
Hiding behind walls has never worked and makes life worse for everyone.

The AI Horizon

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Artificial intelligence is poised to significantly impact various fields and activities, transforming how we approach creativity, professional activities, science, and many more domains. Disruption will accelerate the development of new innovative businesses and strategies in finance, medicine, data management, systems engineering, materials science, art, and other industries. AI’s impact will be profound and multifaceted, driving innovation and efficiency and posing challenges regarding ethics, job displacement, and new skills and regulations. As AI continues to evolve, its integration into these areas will likely shape the future of human society in significant ways.

A Golden Age of Miraculous Cures…Perhaps

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The first gene-edited approved drug (treating sickle cell anemia) is the first commercial rewriting of human genomes. Is this a new “Golden Age” for medicine? There is great promise, and the potential to treat unmet medical needs, scale dramatic innovations to commercial applications, and transform life sciences is enormous. Since every medicine is an intersection of scientific, technical, and clinical understanding, many new treatments are suddenly arriving because of the convergence of dramatic advancements in science, technical knowledge, and clinical results. Modern medicine is witnessing a transformative era of groundbreaking innovations and technological advancements. We are witnessing a renaissance in drug treatment driven by innovations in immunotherapy, weight management, vaccine development, gene editing, and AI. These advances reshape medical treatments and fundamentally alter our approach to health and disease. As these technologies mature and their applications broaden, the future of medicine holds unprecedented potential for improving human health and longevity. A golden age – with a bit of hype.

An Optimist’s Vision of AI

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The era of artificial intelligence is here, and it’s generating despair and fear over the loss of control and the worry that artificial intelligence is about to unleash killer robots and enslave humanity. Perhaps…or, something else. Artificial intelligence will improve lives and generate greater access to education, improve healthcare, and advance climate science. Among many other improvements, AI’s benefits greatly outweigh its costs. AI has its costs since everything comes with a price (there are always both sides to the ledger), but the extraordinary benefits that artificial intelligence can unleash are worth the effort. Don’t slow down, pause, or restrict research, development, and AI applications. Prometheus gave the world fire and while we can still cause great harm, it was among the single greatest advancements for humankind. Artificial intelligence can be the same thing for our modern-day recipients of fire from the gods. But, we can’t be naïve. We can still burn the earth down if we are not careful.

AI will not destroy the world – and is more likely to save it. I’s trajectory points towards a future where it not only enhances technological capabilities but also enriches human lives. Its evolving role will be characterized by a synergy between human and artificial intelligence, propelling societal progress and opening new frontiers of innovation and discovery is not just a technological advancement; it’s a catalyst for a new era of human endeavor.

Its impact is vast, touching every aspect of our lives and work. As AI continues to evolve, its role in shaping our society and driving innovation will only become more significant, opening new horizons for growth, creativity, and human potential.

Cryptocurrency and Digital Assets: Terror and Opportunity

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Cryptocurrencies soar in value, plunge, hit new highs, are written off, rebound, and hit new highs again, and the cycle repeats. We should be terrified. Over the last five years, cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ether have outperformed the overall market. However, can the general trend of outperformance last, or will these digital assets drop over 90% like some of its other crypto brethren? Is there a sustainable performance that creates the foundation for either a new currency or a valuable asset class? Probably not. Forces that drive these eye-watering returns seem to be the same as those that drove the social media-driven insanity behind meme stocks such as GameStop. We are seeing social media mobs controlling demand to a limited supply, creating price spikes that look attractive to any speculative investor. Unfortunately, demand can dry up quickly and the price subsequently falls through the floor. Financial markets ruthlessly sort nonsense from substance. Volatility and existential threats have been brutal and extreme for digital assets and the reckoning for crypto has been predicted for some time. However, digital assets are not on their way to history’s dustbin. Reality is more nuanced, and I try to provide a more detailed analysis since a broad brush hardly seems appropriate. The weakest and craziest portions of the crypto world have been exposed as nothing more than silliness. But some valuable components remain resilient and offer tremendous opportunity. I will explore these in detail. There is more cause for optimism than pessimism among the best and the brightest. We will explore these opportunities while harshly dismissing the hype and silliness – avoid the terror of a worthless market.

Today, Tomorrow, and the Apocalypse

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The future does not need us, and apparently, we don’t need it either.

The future isn’t what it used to be.

Humankind evolved to have a long-term view, either from religious teachings, the seasons, empires, and epoques, beyond the temporal spaces of our lifetimes. We went from living in an extended present to thinking about a long-term future.

Our horizons have gotten much shorter. When I wrote my latest book, “The Ten Year Horizon,” ten years seemed a sufficient and faraway temporal space to discuss a long arc of basic scientific research and discovery that could address our most urgent problems. However, it’s most appropriate to think a century ahead in order to understand the future we really want. It’s not just for us, it’s for generations to come.

Collectively, mankind has never had so many ways to destroy itself through self-made dangers including nuclear weapons, bioterrorism, climate change, antibiotic resistance, and many other self-manufactured threats. It is time for temporal maturity and ignore the tumultuous waves striking the boat today and keep our eye on the long-term horizon.

Short-term thinking has brought the potential for a catastrophic crisis even closer. Perhaps now it is time to grow up and think about the future. What do we want to be – because whatever that may be, we are certainly not working towards it now.

Conservation Won’t Work

Advanced Technology, Article, Lectures, Public Policy, Science, The Market

In crisis there is opportunity. The infrastructure of modern society – utilities, telecom systems, energy systems, highways, and other components – is essential for global economic development, unavoidable, demanded by many, pose insurmountable obstacles, and is poised at the edge of transformational change. They Want What We Have Emerging economies need a range of basic…

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