Nicholas Mitsakos

Investor, Entrepreneur, Writer, and Lecturer

Books
Articles

Articles

Current research and analysis on topics ranging from innovation, disruption, and opportunity, as well as hype, irrationality, and absurdity.

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Blog

Blog

Commentary about recent technological, market, economic, and geopolitical events

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Lectures

Lectures

Presentations about developments in technology, life sciences, digital assets, and other transformational businesses, as well as market, economic, and geopolitical developments

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Rationality and Exuberance

Article, Class Material, Investment Strategy, Lectures, Prediction, The Market, , , , , , , ,

Predicting what’s next has been a fool’s game, and it continues to be. The S&P 500 was up 26% in 2023 and 25% in 2024, for the best two-year stretch since 1997-98. That brings us to 2025. What lies ahead? Rationality, Optimism, exuberance, disappointment, correction, and more frequent and intense volatility—with uncertainty about the timing, extent, and outcome. Is enthusiasm for new technology creating a bubble, and will the bubble burst? Optimism has prevailed in the markets since late 2022, generating above-average valuations and astonishing returns for some (primarily AI-related) equities. Stocks in most industrial groups sell at high multiples, but enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and the persistence of the Magnificent 7 drive most market expectations. There is the implicit presumption that the top seven companies will continue to be successful and that the “new thing” (artificial intelligence) will drive valuations even higher. However, stocks may sit still for the next 10 years as earnings rise and multiples return to earth. Another possibility is that the multiple correction is compressed into a year or two, implying a significant decline in stock prices. Be aware of Mr. Market’s irrational behavior. It’s not going to be a smooth pathway forward; there will be great investment opportunities, as there are in any market, but overall, it’s a high starting point. It’s time to be neutral.

AGI Is Not Coming Soon

Advanced Technology, Article, Artificial Intelligence, Lectures, ,

This podcast discusses my article on the current state of artificial intelligence, focusing on the limitations of large language models and the unrealistic expectations surrounding the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI). I argue that AI systems are not on a trajectory to match or exceed human intelligence because LLMs lack common sense and rely on regurgitating information rather than understanding. Despite the hype surrounding AGI, it is decades away, and the current focus on LLMs is misguided. Instead, I advocate for a different approach to AI that incorporates real-world interactions and visual data.

Burning Billions

Advanced Technology, Article, Artificial Intelligence, Lectures, ,

Many experts are exaggerating artificial intelligence’s power and peril. Most public commentary, ranging from politicians to prominent technologists, says AI – more precisely, AGI – is close to surpassing human intelligence. The significant risk is that artificial intelligence will supplant human beings. This speculation even comes from Geoffrey Hinton, a Nobel prize-winning AI pioneer. AI models are useful, but, as Yann LeCun, Meta’s AI head, says, they are far from rivaling a house cat’s intelligence, let alone humans. The talk that AI will become so powerful that it poses an existential threat to human beings is nonsense. AI is a powerful tool and is becoming enormously important in all aspects of the economy. But AGI, malicious or otherwise, will not happen anytime soon.

A New Vision for AI

Advanced Technology, Article, Artificial Intelligence

This is a new podcast based on my artificial intelligence research. I argue that the current approach to artificial intelligence, reliant on massive datasets and “neural networks” inspired by the brain, is fundamentally flawed. Instead, it advocates for a new vision that prioritizes cognitive architecture, mirroring the brain’s ability to process information dynamically and identify relevant data. This new approach would utilize smaller, more focused datasets, leading to more efficient, accurate, and scalable AI systems capable of true learning, knowledge transfer, and prediction.

Apple versus Visa

Advanced Technology, Article, Artificial Intelligence, Class Material, Lectures, Transformative Businesses, , , , , , , ,

Apple can disrupt global finance. Visa and MasterCard are now vulnerable. Previously, it was believed that the capital required for infrastructure, systems, and processing was an insurmountable obstacle to any new competitor. But things have changed. Innovation and disruption in the credit card business pose a threat to established players like Visa and MasterCard. Apple can leverage its ecosystem, user experience focus, brand trust, strategic partnerships, and innovative use of data to succeed in the credit card business. Over time, as it scales and innovates, it could challenge Visa and MasterCard’s market dominance.

A New Perspective on AI

Advanced Technology, Article, Artificial Intelligence, Book Chapter, Class Material, Science, , , , ,

AI is not a data problem; it is a cognitive architecture problem. Data and computing power will become insurmountable hurdles for transformer-based models. A new generation of AI models requires fundamental breakthroughs. Large data models can’t learn, transfer knowledge or understanding, understand the relevance, or use analogous learning to transfer that relevance and predict. Current AI models require massive and increasing data and learn from reinforcement. This cannot scale and is massively inefficient. Real learning based on cognitive architecture, focused dynamic data, and referential data sets is a better solution. This is closer to real human learning, more effective and efficient, and offers a significantly better solution. Understanding the natural learning process — referential and analogous data, categorization, transferring and building upon that data, and creating knowledge applicable to new situations — learning builds upon itself and is exponentially effective. That is the real AI solution.

Globalization Under Threat 

Article, Book Chapter, China, Class Material, globalization, Lectures, Public Policy, , , , , , , ,

The paranoia is building. From the CHIPS Act to proposals for absurdly high tariffs (60% on goods from China isn’t going to help anyone) to banning TikTok, the world is on the verge of reversing decades of progress and exchanging real progress for delusionary gains.
Efforts to localize production and economic development with vast government subsidies are being proposed or enacted in the United States, the EU, China, India, and any other economic center that can think of it.
Hiding behind walls has never worked and makes life worse for everyone.

Transformation, Disruption, Opportunity, and Hype

Advanced Technology, Article, Book Chapter, Life Sciences, Science, Transformative Businesses

Global technological transformation and disruptive technologies create extraordinary opportunities – and magnified risks. Headline-grabbing hyperbole dominates each news cycle, and some forecasts and bewildering futuristic projections can mostly be dismissed. However, meaningful substance and catalytic disruptive change are permeating all industries.
A context to understand these developments – a broader, methodical, and disciplined way to think about disruption and transformation- shows that extraordinary opportunities on a highly competitive global scale are emerging.
Artificial intelligence and AI-generated tools, digital assets, blockchain-based businesses, gene editing, and DNA sequencing profoundly impact the world’s most important industries. New technological innovations and platforms enable unprecedented disruption to all business and economic models.

China, Prosperity, and Free Markets

Article, China, globalization, Transformative Businesses, Uncategorized, , , , , , , ,

Chairman Xi faces more significant problems than just a declining stock market. Future prosperity, innovation, and China’s global position in advanced technologies are at stake. Bureaucratic regulation and central government money are not the answer, and an uncomfortable truth for communist bureaucrats is that a free market, access to venture capital and private equity, and vibrant public markets are essential for China’s success. A volatile market is still best at attributing value and allocating capital over time. China’s entrepreneurs have brilliance, incomparable fortitude, and a strong work ethic, but without capital and liquidity for that capital, the ship will run aground.

Permanent capital is essential for the growth of an economy, innovation, and prosperity. Liquidity is essential for that capital.

Artificial Intelligence: The Sharpened Rock

Advanced Technology, Book, Class Material, Life Sciences, Uncategorized, , ,

AI is a powerful tool under human direction, not an autonomous entity with consciousness or emotions. It examines artificial intelligence’s opportunities, limitations, and risks while giving a reality check to the hyperbole and fears.

The first and most crucial principle in understanding AI is recognizing its inherent nature as a tool, a creation of human ingenuity designed to augment, rather than replace, human intelligence. AI systems, at their core, are complex algorithms capable of processing and learning from data at a scale and speed unattainable by human cognition.
However, it is an unprecedented, powerful tool that can permeate every aspect of society, industry, and human ingenuity globally. Its impact can be equivalent to Prometheus giving humans the gift of fire.